With Santa Barbara County weighing ordinances to phase out onshore oil and gas development – a decision that will affect workers, communities, and the environment for decades to come – uncertainty and uncertain claims are swirling around future of the offshore oil platforms along the county's southern coastline. In 2015, following a burst pipeline connected to oil drilling spilled over 450,000 gallons of heavy crude into the ocean along 136 miles of coastline.
Arguing that local oil operations would ease California's reliance on foreign oil, Sable Offshore Corp. recently restarted that pipeline. Last year, UCSB political science professor Paasha Mahdavi released a report that essentially debunked Sable's claims. Now, a report released today by Mahdavi along with the UCSB 2035 Initiative and the UCSB Community Labor Center, finds that a solid majority of local residents oppose the new oil drilling.
According to a survey of 2700 residents, roughly 60-65% of county residents support a phaseout of oil and gas operations, with support rising substantially when policies are paired with worker protections and oil well cleanup. The report, titled Potential Community and Labor Impacts of an Onshore Oil Phaseout in Santa Barbara County, also presents new data on the demographics of the local workforce, analyzes job creation in alternative energy industries, and interviews oil and gas workers to understand what it would take to support them amidst a phaseout.
The report contains several key findings:
*A phaseout of existing onshore oil and gas operations in the County would result in a contraction of the local workforce. However, significant contraction is likely, even without a phaseout policy, due to structural declines in well productivity.
*A novel survey of more than 2,700 residents found roughly 65% support prohibiting new oil and gas operations and 60% support a phaseout of existing operations. Support rises when policies are paired with worker provisions: respondents were roughly 5 - 15 percentage points more likely to back a package providing job training or worker support, and roughly 20 percentage points more likely to support one that included inactive well clean-up and/or repurposing.
*Skills-matching analysis shows most oil and gas workers have pathways into occupations with a small skills gap and comparable wages. However, workers themselves report difficulty in applying industry experience and qualifications to other industries, which could be helped via streamlined certification pathways and dedicated hiring programs. Existing County workforce development goals of upskilling and reskilling the existing workforce are also applicable. Clean energy growth and inactive well clean-up can create new jobs in Santa Barbara County.
*Buildout of solar and wind energy in the county could generate over 700 new direct jobs by 2045. Additionally, there will be employment opportunities for plugging and remediating the county’s thousands of idle and inactive wells.
"This is the most thorough and systematic analysis to date of Santa Barbara County’s potential oil and gas phaseout," said Paasha Mahdavi, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Santa Barbara and Co-Founder of The 2035 Initiative. "A phaseout is popular across the county, whether in Santa Maria, Lompoc, the Santa Ynez Valley, or the South Coast — and critically, so too are robust plans to support workers. Residents don't just want a phaseout; they want it done right."
"What we heard from workers is that they don't want to be an afterthought," said Carmen Rhodes, Director of the UCSB Community Labor Center. "They want to be at the table from the beginning — helping to shape the plans that will affect their lives and livelihoods. The County should use every tool at its disposal to engage impacted workers and create good jobs here in Santa Barbara County."